Each project within CHS used a different approach to develop the joint probability model for selection of storms and extreme value analysis of storm responses. Data from each project was produced in a statistical context that span practical probability space (1 year to 10,000 year return periods).

USACE North Atlantic Coast Comprehensive Study (NACCS)

  • 1050 Synthetic Storms
  • 100 Historical storms
  • Over 20,000 save points

  • Winds and Pressures
  • ADCIRC / STWAVE
  • Base simulations (No tides, no sea level change)
  • Base + Linear superposition of 96 random tides
  • Base + Random or Historical Tide simulations (One tide per storm, no sea level change)
  • Base + Random Tide + Sea Level Change 1.0 m (One tide per storm, sea level change 1.0m)
  • Statistics
    Annual Exceedance Probability (AEP)
    Storm Recurrence Rate (SRR)

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FEMA Region V Great Lakes Coastal Flood Study

  • Lakes Michigan, St. Clair, Huron, Ontario, Superior and Erie
  • ~ 150 Historical storms 1960-2010
  • Over 10,000 save points

  • ADCIRC / STWAVE / WAM / SWAN
  • Winds and Pressures
  • Statistics
    Annual Exceedance Probability (AEP)
    Storm Recurrence Rate (SRR)

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USACE Texas / Louisiana / Mississippi

  • 892 Synthetic storms modeled
  • Historical storms: Allen, Bret, Carla, Ike, Rita
  • Over 7,000 save points

  • ADCIRC / STWAVE
  • Statistics
    Annual Exceedance Probability (AEP)
    Storm Recurrence Rate (SRR)

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USACE Sabine to Galveston (S2G)

  • Base Conditions with and without Project
  • 61 Tropical Synthetic storms modeled
  • Over 4,000 save points

  • ADCIRC / STWAVE
  • Statistics
    Annual Exceedance Probability (AEP)
    Storm Recurrence Rate (SRR)

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